| 83 | 0 | 258 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
情绪预测偏差包括强度偏差和持续时间偏差，不仅表现为高估未来事件情绪反应强度和持续时间的影响偏差，还表现为影响偏差的逆转，即低估未来事件情绪反应的强度和持续时间.文章对情绪预测偏差的研究方法、实证研究、产生机制及干预方法进行了系统梳理.未来研究应深入探讨更多、更有效的情绪预测偏差干预方法，研究不同群体的情绪预测偏差，并探究情绪预测偏差产生的脑机制.
Abstract：Affective forecasting biases encompass intensity bias and duration bias. These biases not only manifest as an influence bias, where individuals overestimate the intensity and duration of emotional responses to future events, but also as reversals of the influence bias, where individuals underestimate the intensity and duration of such emotional responses. This article systematically reviews the research methods, empirical studies, underlying mechanisms, and intervention strategies related to affective forecasting biases. Future research should further explore more diverse and effective intervention methods for affective forecasting biases, investigate these biases across different populations, and examine the brain mechanisms underlying their occurrence.
[1] 刘聪慧，张耀华，俞国良.情感预测偏差的相关研究评述[J].心理科学进展，2010,18(8):1246-1255.
[2] WILSON T D,GILBERT D T.Affective forecasting[J].Adv Exp Soc Psychol,2003,35:345-411.
[3] GILBERT D T,EBERT J E J.Decisions and revisions:the affective forecasting of changeable outcomes[J].J Personal Soc Psychol,2002,82(4):503-514.
[4] WILSON T D,GILBERT D T.Affective forecasting:knowing what to want[J].Curr Dir Psychol Sci,2005,14(3):131-134.
[5] BUECHEL E C,ZHANG J,MOREWEDGE C K.Impact bias or underestimation?Outcome specifications predict the direction of affective forecasting errors[J].J Exp Psychol Gen,2017,146(5):746-761.
[6] GüTH W,SCHMITTBERGER R,SCHWARZE B.An experimental analysis of ultimatum bargaining[J].J Econ Behav Organ,1982,3(4):367-388.
[7] 王芹，白学军.最后通牒博弈中回应者的情绪唤醒和决策行为研究[J].心理科学，2010,33(4):844-847.
[8] 方平，刘蕾，姜媛.最后通牒博弈中提议者情绪预测偏差对公平决策的影响：公平感知的作用[J].心理学探新，2021,41(3):269-275.
[9] 马英，方平，姜媛.青少年情绪预测偏差与决策的关系研究[J].心理科学，2011,34(4):852-855.
[10] 韩小丽，田孟奇，田嘉乐，等.最后通牒博弈的研究范式述评及其对结果的影响[J].中国临床心理学杂志，2020,28(5):891-896.
[11] KURTZ J L,WILSON T D,GILBERT D T.Quantity versus uncertainty:when winning one prize is better than winning two[J].J Exp Soc Psychol,2007,43(6):979-985.
[12] WILSON T D,CENTERBAR D B,KERMER D A,et al.The pleasures of uncertainty:prolonging positive moods in ways people do not anticipate[J].J Pers Soc Psychol,2005,88(1):5-21.
[13] 耿晓伟，范琳琳，赵李娜.学习能动性信念对初中生学习行为中情感预测偏差的影响[J].心理科学，2019,42(1):56-61.
[14] 孙琳，段涛，刘伟，等.特质正念对初中生学业情绪预测偏差的影响[J].心理学报，2021,53(11):1203-1214.
[15] DOLAN P,METCALFE R.‘Oops…I did it again’:repeated focusing effects in reports of happiness[J].J Econ Psychol,2010,31(4):732-737.
[16] DUNN E W,WILSON T D,GILBERT D T.Location,location,location:the misprediction of satisfaction in housing lotteries[J].Pers Soc Psychol Bull,2003,29(11):1421-1432.
[17] EMANUEL A S,UPDEGRAFF J A,KALMBACH D A,et al.The role of mindfulness facets in affective forecasting[J].Pers Individ Differ,2010,49(7):815-818.
[18] KASSAM K S,GILBERT D T,BOSTON A,et al.Future anhedonia and time discounting[J].J Exp Soc Psychol,2008,44(6):1533-1537.
[19] BRENNER C J,BEN-ZEEV D.Affective forecasting in schizophrenia:comparing predictions to real-time ecological momentary assessment (EMA) ratings[J].Psychiatr Rehabil J,2014,37(4):316-320.
[20] GILBERT D T,GILL M J,WILSON T D.The future is now:temporal correction in affective forecasting[J].Organ Behav Hum Decis Process,2002,88(1):430-444.
[21] GILBERT D T,LIEBERMAN M D,MOREWEDGE C K,et al.The peculiar longevity of things not so bad[J].Psychol Sci,2004,15(1):14-19.
[22] FU L S,YU J J,NI S G,et al.Reduced framing effect:experience adjusts affective forecasting with losses[J].J Exp Soc Psychol,2018,76:231-238.
[23] BUEHLER R,MCFARLAND C.Intensity bias in affective forecasting:the role of temporal focus[J].Pers Soc Psychol Bull,2001,27(11):1480-1493.
[24] SUH E,DIENER E,FUJITA F.Events and subjective well-being:only recent events matter[J].J Pers Soc Psychol,1996,70(5):1091-1102.
[25] KOPP L,ATANCE C M,PEARCE S.‘Things aren't so bad!’:preschoolers overpredict the emotional intensity of negative outcomes[J].Br J Dev Psychol,2017,35(4):623-627.
[26] KAHNEMAN D A,TVERSKY A N.Prospect theory:an analysis of decision under risk[J].Econometrica,1979,47(2):263-291.
[27] SCHKADE D A,KAHNEMAN D.Does living in California make people happy?A focusing illusion in judgments of life satisfaction[J].Psychol Sci,1998,9(5):340-346.
[28] WILSON T D,WHEATLEY T,MEYERS J M,et al.Focalism:a source of durability bias in affective forecasting[J].J Pers Soc Psychol,2000,78(5):821-836.
[29] RUBY M B,DUNN E W,PERRINO A,et al.The invisible benefits of exercise[J].Health Psychol,2011,30(1):67-74.
[30] KUMAR A,EPLEY N.Undervaluing gratitude:expressers misunderstand the consequences of showing appreciation[J].Psychol Sci,2018,29(9):1423-1435.
[31] LENCH H C,SAFER M A,LEVINE L J.Focalism and the underestimation of future emotion:when it's worse than imagined[J].Emotion,2011,11(2):278-285.
[32] LEVINE E E,COHEN T R.You can handle the truth:mispredicting the consequences of honest communication[J].J Exp Psychol Gen,2018,147(9):1400-1429.
[33] MALLETT R K,WILSON T D,GILBERT D T.Expect the unexpected:failure to anticipate similarities leads to an intergroup forecasting error[J].J Pers Soc Psychol,2008,94(2):265-277.
[34] MOONS W G,CHEN J M,MACKIE D M.Stereotypes:a source of bias in affective and empathic forecasting[J].Group Process Intergroup Relat,2017,20(2):139-152.
[35] GILBERT D T,PINEL E C,WILSON T D,et al.Immune neglect:a source of durability bias in affective forecasting[J].J Pers Soc Psychol,1998,75(3):617-638.
[36] HOERGER M,QUIRK S W,LUCAS R E,et al.Immune neglect in affective forecasting[J].J Res Pers,2009,43(1):91-94.
[37] 孙琳，段涛，陈宁.情绪预测偏差的成因及干预[J].心理科学进展，2020,28(12):2018-2026.
[38] BROWN K W,RYAN R M,CRESWELL J D.Mindfulness:theoretical foundations and evidence for its salutary effects[J].Psychol Inq,2007,18(4):211-237.
[39] UBEL P A,LOEWENSTEIN G,JEPSON C.Disability and sunshine:Can hedonic predictions be improved by drawing attention to focusing illusions or emotional adaptation?[J].J Exp Psychol Appl,2005,11(2):111-123.
[40] 耿晓伟，张峰.情感预测的影响偏差：聚焦错觉还是适应忽视?[J].心理科学，2015,38(5):1201-1206.
[41] ZHANG R T,YANG Z Y,WANG Y M,et al.Affective forecasting in individuals with social anhedonia:the role of social components in anticipated emotion,prospection and neural activation[J].Schizophr Res,2020,215:322-329.
[42] MITCHELL J P,SCHIRMER J,AMES D L,et al.Medial prefrontal cortex predicts intertemporal choice[J].J Cogn Neurosci,2011,23(4):857-866.
[43] RAN G M,CAO X J,CHEN X.Emotional prediction:an ALE meta-analysis and MACM analysis[J].Conscious Cogn,2018,58:158-169.
基本信息:
DOI：10.19926/j.cnki.issn.1674-232X.2024.11.121
中图分类号:B842.6
引用信息:
[1]刘馨泽,苏艳青.情绪预测偏差的产生机制与研究展望[J].杭州师范大学学报(自然科学版),2025,24(06):603-609.DOI:10.19926/j.cnki.issn.1674-232X.2024.11.121.
2024-11-12
2024
2025-10-24
2025
2
2025-11-30
2025-11-30